The Real, Long Lasting (and negative) impact of Web 2.0 and Technology Adoption - Fraser Kenton: Web 2.0 Expo NYC
Fraser Kelton, Adaptive Blue
Sept 17/08 - raw notes
VP of business dev @ Adaptive Blue
1. Web 2.0 trends
2. Impact
3. Ways to adapt
Product pitch: Funded by union sq ventures, product downloaded 1.6M times, NY Times implementation, etc.
1. Web 2.0 trends
Since 2003 trends
Nuclear winter: 2001 to 2003 innovation not really there
Trends: open source software + commoditization of hardware
Given rise to capital efficient companies
Past 5 years: one or two people, start a company at a coffee shop
Decrease in cost required to start a company = a ton of startups
APIs, cloud computing
Build on top of things look google maps
Utilizing Amazon S3, Google, etc. Building a layer of innovation on top of that
Ability to stand on the shoulders of giants - google, yahoo, msft, etc.
Blogs + aggregators
Increase of velocity and frequency of information
Discovering a new startup is faster
Social features + read/write web
Huge network effects
Increased participation of the sites we're on, invested
Uploaded thousands of photos, saved our favourite bookmarks
Built on back of consumers and their activity
4 trends:
Capital efficient startups
Ability to leverage great amounts of existing innovation
Increased velocity
Engaged user base
Clayton Christensen: this stuff didn't exist when he wrote his book
World he discussed, how web 2.0 has impacted it, then ways to survive & thrive in the world
Harvard Biz Prof: crossing the chasm
Laid out a model
Growth and adoption: tech adoption curve
Innovators
Early adopters
Early majority
Late majority
Laggards
Psychological preferences of these groups (maximizers -> satisficers?)
Prefer that others deal with the pain prior to
Goal: focus on market segment you're currently in
Focus on innovators and their needs, feedback provide, to step into next market segment
Critical at every step along the way
Can't just shoot for mainstream adoption, product is not ready for it yet.
Use each segment to move forward
Company failure zone: early adopters / mainstream majority
Geeky enough to work through your products problems before the early majority
Well known theory
Web 2.0 has changed the curve and the strategy on top of it.
4 trends have systematically changed the marketplace.
Chasm has changed and the way we cross it
Capital efficient companies
Too many of them, hard to discern the signal from the noise
Too many young startups to seek them out
Tech crunch 50: filtered lists of companies that launched.
Hundreds of companies - how can any early adopter figure it out?
Increase signal & noise
Leverage existing innovation: negative impact
Introduce a feature on top of google maps: low innovation
Just a feature, not a product
Single idea, lend themselves to being copied
Velocity of information
Competition between brothers anecdote
Used to be able to hire PR companies, you were well funded, you got attention
Now, not so much
Engaged + networked user base
I'm committed and invested to flickr. Thousands of photos
I'm not going to change. Lock in effect is occuring
Network has gravity, not going to move
Not going to switch to new bookmarking, even if better, because I'm
Happy/committed to the system
Non-technological reasons for people to not discover your product
We have the site we're happy with, not the best from a tech perspective, but
Invested into it
2 big impacts on tech adoption
Increase number of web companies due to capital efficiency + velocity & frequency + non tech costs = difficult to acquire the attention of the early adopter
The early adopter used to seek out the technology
Easier to do so previously
Changes the way the strategy works on top of the tech curve
Christensen: foothold, target niche, early adopters
No longer can you find them
Copycat companies + 1 feature company with minimal innovation = difficult to retain the attention of early adopters
If they discover you from the noise, they won't read a white paper
Read a bullet point
Complexity in the product, deliver the benefit? Good luck
Compare to Christensen's strategy: early adopters would help you refine
Now: early adopters won't even ready copy on your website
Web 2.0 adoption paradox: obtain attention, retain attention
Have to rise about noise, but then because you're innovative, they fall off, because you're too complex
Level of simplicity to retain attention is often times the reason why you're not obtaining their attention in the first place.
2 people who can help to solve this
Lauren Conrad, Richard Belzer
"any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic" - arthur c clarke
Make it magic: google is magic
Capture attention of early adopters by making it magic?
Retain them, because don't need to see the details?
Lauren Conrad - MTV, Laguna Beach: how'd she get to be a big star, The Hills
Augment current system
Bring additional value
Deliver immediate benefit
Build implicitly
Back your way into rich features
Friendfeed as an example of something that built on top of existing systems
Attracted early adopters
Backing into a full system -- added features to their system
Didn't try to rebuild all of the services, didn't change behaviour, won over early adopter crowd
Manage digital life on this site
Rapidly grown into adopter base, pulling a Lauren Conrad
Richard Belzer - actor / character "munsch"
16 years - outlived every single show he's been on
Single character, thriving in a world where shows he's been on, coming and going
All of Law & Order, x-files, same character, same characteristics
Integrate into current system
Deliver a new feature or improve existing feature
Bring new value
Grow on the back of the current entity
All different shows, same guy. 8 tv series, but the guy is in all of them
HBO to ABC to movies (cross platform)
Summize / Twitter Search
Summize launches: fully rich feature world, red/orange/green, a complete system to tell you the sentiment of products that exist across the web
Flash memory reader example "swell opinions"
Scrapped being a feature rich product, became one feature for one company: twitter search
Feature that doesn't currently exist, let's own it.
Hid the magic behind the scenes
Zero adoption to being acquired by twitter in a few months
They could have powered sentiment search across the web, had they not been acquired
Worlds changed, tech adoption curve has shifted
Biggest chasm: find, retain early adopters
Two people as to how you can do it: LC and Mr Munsch
Sept 17/08 - raw notes
VP of business dev @ Adaptive Blue
1. Web 2.0 trends
2. Impact
3. Ways to adapt
Product pitch: Funded by union sq ventures, product downloaded 1.6M times, NY Times implementation, etc.
1. Web 2.0 trends
Since 2003 trends
Nuclear winter: 2001 to 2003 innovation not really there
Trends: open source software + commoditization of hardware
Given rise to capital efficient companies
Past 5 years: one or two people, start a company at a coffee shop
Decrease in cost required to start a company = a ton of startups
APIs, cloud computing
Build on top of things look google maps
Utilizing Amazon S3, Google, etc. Building a layer of innovation on top of that
Ability to stand on the shoulders of giants - google, yahoo, msft, etc.
Blogs + aggregators
Increase of velocity and frequency of information
Discovering a new startup is faster
Social features + read/write web
Huge network effects
Increased participation of the sites we're on, invested
Uploaded thousands of photos, saved our favourite bookmarks
Built on back of consumers and their activity
4 trends:
Capital efficient startups
Ability to leverage great amounts of existing innovation
Increased velocity
Engaged user base
Clayton Christensen: this stuff didn't exist when he wrote his book
World he discussed, how web 2.0 has impacted it, then ways to survive & thrive in the world
Harvard Biz Prof: crossing the chasm
Laid out a model
Growth and adoption: tech adoption curve
Innovators
Early adopters
Early majority
Late majority
Laggards
Psychological preferences of these groups (maximizers -> satisficers?)
Prefer that others deal with the pain prior to
Goal: focus on market segment you're currently in
Focus on innovators and their needs, feedback provide, to step into next market segment
Critical at every step along the way
Can't just shoot for mainstream adoption, product is not ready for it yet.
Use each segment to move forward
Company failure zone: early adopters / mainstream majority
Geeky enough to work through your products problems before the early majority
Well known theory
Web 2.0 has changed the curve and the strategy on top of it.
4 trends have systematically changed the marketplace.
Chasm has changed and the way we cross it
Capital efficient companies
Too many of them, hard to discern the signal from the noise
Too many young startups to seek them out
Tech crunch 50: filtered lists of companies that launched.
Hundreds of companies - how can any early adopter figure it out?
Increase signal & noise
Leverage existing innovation: negative impact
Introduce a feature on top of google maps: low innovation
Just a feature, not a product
Single idea, lend themselves to being copied
Velocity of information
Competition between brothers anecdote
Used to be able to hire PR companies, you were well funded, you got attention
Now, not so much
Engaged + networked user base
I'm committed and invested to flickr. Thousands of photos
I'm not going to change. Lock in effect is occuring
Network has gravity, not going to move
Not going to switch to new bookmarking, even if better, because I'm
Happy/committed to the system
Non-technological reasons for people to not discover your product
We have the site we're happy with, not the best from a tech perspective, but
Invested into it
2 big impacts on tech adoption
Increase number of web companies due to capital efficiency + velocity & frequency + non tech costs = difficult to acquire the attention of the early adopter
The early adopter used to seek out the technology
Easier to do so previously
Changes the way the strategy works on top of the tech curve
Christensen: foothold, target niche, early adopters
No longer can you find them
Copycat companies + 1 feature company with minimal innovation = difficult to retain the attention of early adopters
If they discover you from the noise, they won't read a white paper
Read a bullet point
Complexity in the product, deliver the benefit? Good luck
Compare to Christensen's strategy: early adopters would help you refine
Now: early adopters won't even ready copy on your website
Web 2.0 adoption paradox: obtain attention, retain attention
Have to rise about noise, but then because you're innovative, they fall off, because you're too complex
Level of simplicity to retain attention is often times the reason why you're not obtaining their attention in the first place.
2 people who can help to solve this
Lauren Conrad, Richard Belzer
"any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic" - arthur c clarke
Make it magic: google is magic
Capture attention of early adopters by making it magic?
Retain them, because don't need to see the details?
Lauren Conrad - MTV, Laguna Beach: how'd she get to be a big star, The Hills
Augment current system
Bring additional value
Deliver immediate benefit
Build implicitly
Back your way into rich features
Friendfeed as an example of something that built on top of existing systems
Attracted early adopters
Backing into a full system -- added features to their system
Didn't try to rebuild all of the services, didn't change behaviour, won over early adopter crowd
Manage digital life on this site
Rapidly grown into adopter base, pulling a Lauren Conrad
Richard Belzer - actor / character "munsch"
16 years - outlived every single show he's been on
Single character, thriving in a world where shows he's been on, coming and going
All of Law & Order, x-files, same character, same characteristics
Integrate into current system
Deliver a new feature or improve existing feature
Bring new value
Grow on the back of the current entity
All different shows, same guy. 8 tv series, but the guy is in all of them
HBO to ABC to movies (cross platform)
Summize / Twitter Search
Summize launches: fully rich feature world, red/orange/green, a complete system to tell you the sentiment of products that exist across the web
Flash memory reader example "swell opinions"
Scrapped being a feature rich product, became one feature for one company: twitter search
Feature that doesn't currently exist, let's own it.
Hid the magic behind the scenes
Zero adoption to being acquired by twitter in a few months
They could have powered sentiment search across the web, had they not been acquired
Worlds changed, tech adoption curve has shifted
Biggest chasm: find, retain early adopters
Two people as to how you can do it: LC and Mr Munsch
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